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国信证券估值模型201152310222148

2021-09-09 来源:爱问旅游网
盈利预测

单位:百万元

2010

2011E4,580.311,007.67732.85893.16412.23(14.24)2.000.000.001,545.70(20.00)1,525.70457.711,067.99181.56886.43 2.05 34.751.84%79.26%

16.99%19.28%10.05%-0.15%30.56%30.56%76.59%29.48%19.95%

16.00%19.50%9.00%-0.31%30.00%30.00%78.00%33.75%23.32%

2012E6,575.741,361.181,052.121,315.15591.82(17.64)2.000.000.002,270.18(20.00)2,250.18652.551,597.63159.761,437.86 3.32 21.443.57%62.21%16.00%20.00%9.00%-0.27%29.00%29.00%79.30%34.52%24.30%

2013E

2014E

2015E

一、营业收入3,016.63

减:营业成本706.15 营业税金及附加512.66

营业费用581.48 管理费用303.08 财务费用(4.44)

资产减值及公允价值变动27.28

加:投资收益0.16

其他收入0.00

二、营业利润889.33

营业外收支净额(22.56)

三、利润总额866.77

减:所得税264.84

四、净利润601.92

减:少数股东损益107.43

五、母公司股东的净利润494.49

EPS

PE

收入增长率净利润增长率

营业税金率营业费用率

管理费用率(不含摊销)

财务费用率名义所得税税率实际所得税税率

毛利率营业利润率净利润率

1.14 62.2

8,566.7510,399.8311,920.031,713.352,027.972,264.811,370.681,663.971,907.201,713.352,079.972,384.01685.34727.99715.20(23.05)(29.51)(35.21)2.002.002.000.000.000.000.000.000.003,104.133,926.504,681.07(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)3,084.133,906.504,661.07863.561,054.761,211.882,220.572,851.753,449.19111.03142.59172.462,109.542,709.163,276.74 4.87 14.630.28%46.71%16.00%20.00%8.00%-0.27%28.00%28.00%80.00%36.23%25.92%

6.26 11.3

21.40%28.42%16.00%20.00%7.00%-0.28%27.00%27.00%80.50%37.76%27.42%

7.57 9.4

14.62%20.95%16.00%20.00%6.00%-0.30%26.00%26.00%81.00%39.27%28.94%

1.84 2.3711.28%40.14%

#DIV/0!

2016E2017E2018E2019E2020ENotes71

直接或间接引用损益表数据需修改数据-代入假设部分

13,202.7214,116.7914,819.6115,357.3415,792.392,442.502,541.022,593.432,610.752,605.742,112.442,258.692,371.142,457.172,526.782,640.542,823.362,963.923,071.473,158.48792.16847.01889.18921.44947.54(41.32)(49.25)(58.47)(68.72)(79.86)2.002.002.002.002.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.005,253.445,693.026,057.476,362.286,630.76(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)5,233.445,673.026,037.476,342.286,610.761,360.701,474.991,569.741,648.991,718.803,872.754,198.044,467.724,693.294,891.96193.64209.90223.39234.66244.603,679.113,988.134,244.344,458.624,647.36 8.50 8.4

10.76%12.28%16.00%20.00%6.00%-0.31%26.00%26.00%81.50%39.79%29.33%

9.21 7.7

6.92%8.40%16.00%20.00%6.00%-0.35%26.00%26.00%82.00%40.33%29.74%

9.80 7.2

4.98%6.42%16.00%20.00%6.00%-0.39%26.00%26.00%82.50%40.87%30.15%

10.30 6.9

3.63%5.05%16.00%20.00%6.00%-0.45%26.00%26.00%83.00%41.43%30.56%

10.73 6.6

2.83%4.23%16.00%20.00%6.00%-0.51%26.00%26.00%83.50%41.99%30.98%

益表数据

据-代入假设部分

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